My forecast

I expected Luma to increase its climate target if a higher target helped it secure cooperation from Vela.

Evidence that matters

A record shows Luma’s domestic coalition backed a 30% target with worker support before Vela’s announcement. The order of those events matters for my explanation.

My revised explanation

Vela’s pledge could help sustain a deal. Domestic bargaining can explain why Luma already considered 30% possible.

What remains open

I would look for a dated proposal tying Luma’s final change directly to terms Vela offered, alongside a record of what Luma’s coalition accepted.