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Security and power

When can trying to get safer make a rival more nervous?

Lead a small coastal state, then ask how another government interprets the same defensive move.

TRY THIS FIRST

Flags & Ferries

Decide how to protect a ferry route, then compare what changes when policy choices or the balance of power change.

65–75 minSee the simulation
Keep exploring 1 more simulation

Look at what a state can deploy locally, what it holds in reserve, and what its ally has promised to send. Read a short theory primer

  • The Cities Are Moving

    Compare two military escorts that drew different reactions. Look for evidence that separates an account of capabilities from an account of intentions.

    The five theory reminders and records are built into the activity.

    205 min · 3 sittings
AFTERWARD, ASK YOURSELF

Which piece of evidence would tell you whether a military move made the other side feel safer or more threatened?

Explore furtherStockholm International Peace Research Institute World Regions Lab

International cooperation

What makes governments move together?

A stronger climate pledge changes one government’s position. Investigate what it might change inside another country.

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After You

Advise Luma’s government, forecast its climate pledge, and compare records of domestic bargaining and international cooperation.

40–50 minSee the simulation
Keep exploring 2 more simulations

Identify who bears the costs and who gains from cooperation. Then ask what evidence would show that a partner’s announcement changed the decision. Read a short theory primer

  • The Next Move

    Replay an inspection decision, then test how another meeting or an enforcement rule changes the incentives.

    60–75 min
  • The Cities Are Moving

    Use the same signed agreement to compare explanations about trade, institutions, domestic politics, security, and shared understandings.

    205 min · 3 sittings
AFTERWARD, ASK YOURSELF

What observation would help you tell whether a government changed its position because of a partner abroad or a deal at home?

Explore furtherUN Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations Treaty Collection

Ideas and norms

Can a relationship change while the weapons stay the same?

Start with the way rivals read a threat. Then explore how expectations and international norms can change political choices.

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The World We Make

Investigate the end of the Cold War and the campaign to ban landmines, then use the records to revisit an earlier prediction.

60–90 min · 5 episodesSee the simulation
Keep exploring 1 more simulation

Identify whose expectations changed and what evidence shows a change in behavior.

  • The Statement

    Compare a public condemnation with the records that might connect it to a change in government conduct.

    35–45 min · optional +10–15 min
AFTERWARD, ASK YOURSELF

What would help you distinguish a change in what officials say from a change in what they consider acceptable?

Explore furtherUnited Nations Treaty Collection Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights

Evidence and inquiry

How can you tell what caused a change?

Detainees are released after a public condemnation. Read the dated records and test what the sequence can establish.

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The Statement

Trace the release of detainees and test explanations that point to different audiences and political pressures.

35–45 min · optional +10–15 minSee the simulation
Keep exploring 1 more simulation

Before looking at the outcome, write down what you would expect to see if your explanation were right.

  • After You

    Compare a forecast with what actually happened, then look for evidence that would distinguish two accounts of the same decision.

    40–50 min
AFTERWARD, ASK YOURSELF

Which observation most changed your confidence, and what would you look for next?

Explore furtherThe Evidence Lab Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights

One agreement, several explanations.

Start with what needs explaining. If two states signed the same agreement, ask what each explanation says made the agreement possible. One may focus on security, another on trade or institutions, and another on shared expectations.

Ask each explanation for an observable clue. A change in military capability, a new domestic coalition, and a change in how officials describe a rival point to different mechanisms. A record can help you decide which mechanism fits this case.

The Cities Are Moving supplies reminders for all five approaches and gives you a chance to revise your first explanation.

Open The Cities Are Moving student guide (PDF)

WORLD REGIONS LAB

The world
behind the case.

Find a place, compare countries, or test your map knowledge. World Regions Lab is available in English, Spanish and German.

Get your bearings →Abrir en español ↗Auf Deutsch öffnen ↗

Keep what you discover.

Use the activity’s save controls to return to your work later. Keep a readable report of the choices and explanations you want to revisit.

Saving and starting again